Midterm elections are just over a month away, on November 3, 2026. If you haven’t followed the issues and candidates, download a sample ballot to preview it before heading to the polls. Whether you vote Democratic, Republican, or for a third-party candidate, you may wonder, as an investor, how the stock market could be affected by the election outcome.
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Since this is not a presidential election year, voter turnout is expected to be lower based on historical data. Since 2002, Ballotpedia has tracked the percentage of ballots cast out of all eligible voters. Average turnout for midterms is 42.75%, compared with 62% in presidential election years. This year, economic issues are top of mind for voters, according to a Pew Research Center report in late July 2026. Whether Americans feel motivated enough to go to the polls remains to be seen. With control of the House and Senate uncertain, many investors are left wondering whether the stock market responds to shifts in congressional power.
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The research team at Dimensional Fund Advisors looked back at stock performance since 1926 and found that stocks trended higher regardless of who controlled the House and the Senate. Overall, the market tends to reward disciplined investors no matter who has the majority power.
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Actions from Congress can affect market returns, but so can other factors, including geopolitical events, interest rate changes, and technological advances. Regardless of what happens in Washington, CEOs of publicly traded companies want to serve their customers and grow their businesses. Shareholders invest in stocks because they trust company leadership to act as fiduciaries, which can drive market growth.
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The chart below shows the growth of a hypothetical $1 investment in the S&P 500 Index from 1926 to 2025. The report suggests that “making investment decisions based on control of the chambers of Congress is unlikely to lead to better financial outcomes.”
History shows that disciplined investors tend to benefit from the market’s long-term growth regardless of which political party controls Congress. Rather than reacting to the headlines or election outcomes, staying focused on your personal financial plan is the most reliable path to achieving your long-term goals.
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At Hurlow Wealth Management Group, we proactively review our clients’ financial plans to ensure they’re positioned to take distributions in retirement, regardless of stock market performance. For over two decades, our financial advisors have helped Midwest Millionaires find clarity, make decisions with confidence, and feel comfort in retirement. If you would like a complimentary consultation to experience the fiduciary difference, CLICK HERE to schedule an introductory call today.
