Recently, a few clients have asked some version of the same question: “This has been a great stock market run, but how long can it last?” If you have not asked your financial advisor this question yet, you may be wondering it. As of this writing, the S&P 500 has been climbing steadily since October 12, 2022. It has set 122 record highs along the way, with the most recent on August 13, when it pushed past 7,800 for the first time in history, closing at 7,798.99. A dollar invested at the 2022 low is worth more than two dollars today. So what is going to happen? A quick peek back at history will shed some light on the current situation.
A quick vocabulary refresher
A bull market is defined as an index (usually the S&P 500) rising at least 20% from the previous market low. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from a high. Like the classic board game Chutes and Ladders, a bear market is a slide back down, while in a bull market the stock index indicates an upward climb. As long as you spend more time climbing ladders than sliding backward, you’ll win in the end.
Stock Market History
On October 19, 1948, Louis Engle, an advertising and sales promotions manager (later partner) at Merrill Lynch, launched a major public-awareness print and educational campaign with a full-page ad entitled “What everybody ought to know… About This Stock and Bond Business” to simplify in plain English equity investing for everyday Americans. Merrill reported more than 3 million responses to the advertisement. At the time, roughly 4.2% of the U.S. population (about 5.5 to 6 million people) owned shares of stock.
By 1957, an estimated 56 million households owned stock in the United States, representing roughly 11% of the total population. This era marked the birth of the modern index fund on March 4, 1957, by the Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and the beginning of a massive post-war shift toward retail stock ownership.
Since then, we have lived through ten complete bull markets and are currently in the eleventh.
BULL MARKETS OF THE S&P 500 SINCE 1957
BEGAN |
TOTAL GAIN |
RAN FOR |
| Oct 1957 | 86% | 4.1 years |
| Jun 1962 | 80% | 3.6 years |
| Oct 1966 | 48% | 2.1 years |
| May 1970 | 74% | 2.6 years |
| Oct 1974 | 126% | 6.2 years |
| Aug 1982 | 229% | 5.0 years |
| Dec 1987 | 582% | 12.3 years |
| Oct 2002 | 102% | 5.0 years |
| Mar 2009 | 401% | 10.9 years |
| Mar 2020 | 114% | 1.8 years |
| Oct 2022 → | +118%* | 3.9 years* |
* Current bull market, ongoing as of Aug 2026. Gains are price-only
Is this bull different?
Yes and No. Yes, we are ahead of schedule. Our current bull has already delivered above-average gains (118%) in below-average time (3.9 years). Yes, history’s extraordinary returns. It exceeds the full-run gains for six of the ten bull markets that came before it. But being ahead of schedule is no indication that it is out of steam. History’s biggest bulls did their best work in years four, five, and beyond.
So, will the bull end soon?
A bull market doesn’t end because a rise has continued for too long, it’s too expensive, or the calendar says so. It typically ends due to specific events, such as a recession, a policy error, or the bursting of a bubble. There’s no rule stating that a bear market must follow four good years.
If you have a reliable crystal ball, you might be able to predict when this bull market will cease. If not, you’ll want to recognize and accept that the stock market can remain overvalued for years. Many investors miss opportunities by waiting to buy during dips. Now is the time to remain disciplined and avoid panicking.
So, how long can this bull run? Could it run for another decade or will it stumble next quarter? Yes, both could be true, or anything in between. The good news for clients of Hurlow Wealth Management Group is that your financial plan is not dependent on guessing when the market will enter correction or bear-market territory. Our portfolios are built to carry clients confidently and comfortably through good markets and bad.
Need help?
If this bull market run has you feeling either nervous, worried, or tempted to jump, that’s worth a conversation with your financial advisor. At Hurlow Wealth Management Group, it’s our responsibility to proactively review your financial plan to make sure you’re positioned to take distributions in retirement regardless of stock market performance. For over two decades, our financial advisors have helped Midwest Millionaires find clarity, make decisions with confidence, and feel comfort in retirement. If you would like a complimentary consultation to experience the fiduciary difference, CLICK HERE to schedule an introductory call today.
